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12 février 2015 4 12 /02 /février /2015 09:25

I'm very busy today with the earnings season. So, the update will be short because there is no major change in the market.

 

Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its consolidation at elevated levels. The market remains in wait and see mood, hoping for the best in both Ukrainian and Greek negotiations.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150212.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains above its zero line and other indicators are neutral.

 

steumodel20150211.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index printed a 'doji'. The market remains in its trading range and there is no change in our view: wait and see.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150212.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index declined to '10' but remains in positive territory. Other indicators are neutral at '3'.

 

stmodel20150211.PNG

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5
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11 février 2015 3 11 /02 /février /2015 07:39
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index remains very strong and it seems markets are once again in a "no fear mood". Looking at the chart below, we can notice the consolidation is still valid and the market remains well above its critical supports.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150211.jpg

 

Most EU indexes have the same pattern than the Sigma Whole Europe Index.

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150211.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartEUSMALL200_20150211.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150211.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150211.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150211.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index slightly increased to '7' and the Swing came in at '4' telling us the session was impulsive. Once again the market is betting on positive development for Greece and positive development for Ukraine. It seems investors aren't any more risk averse but became, thanks to central banks, the most hopeful people around the world.

 

steumodel20150210.PNG

United States:

The Sigma Whole MArket Index has been stuck in its red trading range for a couple of weeks, we need to wait for the breakout in order to get more information from this market.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150211.jpg

 

The NDX lost some momentum but the Mid Cap 400 is strong at this stage.

 

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150211.jpg

US-Daily-ChartMID_20150211.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150211.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index increased to '17' and the Swing came in at '5', telling us the session was highly impulsive.

 

stmodel20150210.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5
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10 février 2015 2 10 /02 /février /2015 08:43
Europe

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its consolidation. The late day rally on Monday helped the market and current situation remains indecisive.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150210.jpg

 

Looking at key European Index, we can notice that both the CAC and Eurostoxx50 found some support at important levels, it will be important to monitor if those indexes can resume their uptrend from here.

 

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150210.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150210.jpg

 

Current pullback on the DAX is so soft that we can't call it a consolidation.

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150210.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line (but above it) and the Swing came in at '2', telling us the move was slightly impulsive.

 

steumodel20150209.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains stuck in its trading range, we have nothing to add. It is just wait and see.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150210.jpg

 

The DJI was under pressure on Monday but we need some follow through in order to turn more bearish on US equities because other key indexes were stable on Monday.

 

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150210.jpg

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150210.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150210.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150210.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index is right on its zero line, it will be very interesting to track what happens from here.

 

stmodel20150209.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

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9 février 2015 1 09 /02 /février /2015 08:13
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index(SWEI) remains close to its recent top but it seems the market lost some of its momentum. Nevertheless, as we said last week, as long as the SWEI remains above its 3 horizontal supports, there is no real danger for the European equity market.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150209.jpg

 

Looking at key European Indexes, the situation is roughly the same: indexes enjoyed a strong rally and most of them are losing some of their momentum. At this stage, the Stoxx600 seems the strongest one while the Ibex remains the weakest one (unable to print new highs in recent rebound).

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150209.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150209.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150209.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150209.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150209.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index is at '7' and all other indicators have been neutral (at '3') for a couple of sessions.

 

steumodel20150206.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains stuck in its recent trading range. We need to wait for a breakout in order to have a better idea of the next trend.

 

US-Daily-Chart SWM 20150209

 

Looking at key US indexes, most of them are also in the middle of their recent trading range. But both the Russell2000 and the S&P Mid Cap 400 are very close to recent tops. So, those indexes are the most important one to monitor at this stage.

 

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150209.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150209.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150209.jpg

US-Daily-ChartMID_20150209.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index declined to '7' (same level than in Europe) and other indicators are neutral at '3'.

 

stmodel20150206.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

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6 février 2015 5 06 /02 /février /2015 06:51
Europe:

The Sgima Whole Europe Index resumed its advance, it seems it is ready for a new upleg after its recent consolidation.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150206.jpg

 

Looking at key European indexes, we can notice that some indexes are very close to print new highs.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600 20150206

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150206.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150206.jpg

 

Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index remains close to its zero line, and other indicators are neutral.

 

steumodel20150205.PNG

 

As we were quiet busy yesterday when we posted our daily, we forgot to mention the ST model was stopped on the DAX:

- DAX: 10699.75 - 10939.3 = -239.55

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index enjoyed a strong session on Thurday. It seems this index is ready to retest previous high. Let's see what happens on Friday (with payrolls data).

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150206.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes, we can notice the MID cap400 is already printing new highs. This looks bullish for the whole market.

 

US-Daily-ChartMID_20150206.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index increased to'23', this means the index is not far to the key '34' level required for a 'sell' signal.

 

stmodel20150205.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: stopped
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

 

 

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5 février 2015 4 05 /02 /février /2015 09:40
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index remains very well oriented, there is no sign of reversal at this stage.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150205.jpg

 

Looking at key European indexes, we can notice that some of them are close to horizontal resistances. Let's see what happens from here.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150205.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150205.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150205.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains in positive territory and other indicators are neutral at '3'.

 

steumodel20150204.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index remains in its trading range, there is nothing special to add: wait and see for the break up or down of this trading range.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150205.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes, the situation is roughly the same: stuck in a trading range.

 

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150205.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150205.jpg

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150205.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150205.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index continues to move around its zero line, this underlines the market remains uncertain.

 

stmodel20150204.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

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4 février 2015 3 04 /02 /février /2015 09:32
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its advance. The index was able to print a new high on Tuesday, it will be interesting to monitor if the advance continues during the rest of the week or if the market is running out of steam.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150204.jpg

 

The DAX printed a negative reversal during the session; this could be a warning signal for the market. To be monitored.

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150204.jpg

 

Other European indexes were well oriented but a double (or triple) top pattern could be under construction.

 

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150204.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150204.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150204.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index remains well above its zero line. The Swing came in at '4', telling us the session was impulsive.

 

steumodel20150203.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index continues to rebound. This index seems out of immediate danger. Let's see if it can reach and breach its red horizontal resistance or not.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150204.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes, we can notice that both the DJ Industrials and the Nasdaq 100 remain close to a major horizontal support. As long as it holds, current situation can be a consolidation, but if the market declines below this support area in comng days/weeks, this will probably trigger a sharp decline in prices.

 

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150204.jpg

US-Daily-ChartRUT_20150204.jpg

US-Daily-ChartMID_20150204.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150204.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index moved back in positive territory and the Swing came in at '5' telling us the session was highly impulsive. Bulls and bears continue to fight and it is still very difficult to have a clear idea of the winning camp.

 

stmodel20150203.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5
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3 février 2015 2 03 /02 /février /2015 07:18
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe remains very resilient, this is impressive to see the current strength on this market: indexes are in consolidation mode and they remain well above their major resistances and it seems there is no danger at this stage.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150202-copie-1.jpg

 

There is some differences when we look at different European indexes, but the situation remains mainly positive (consolidation phase at this stage before another up leg):

 

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150202-copie-1.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150202-copie-1.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSTOXX600_20150202.jpg

The IBEX is even more impressive because it has been able to print  a candle looking at a key reversal day. It will be interesting to track the situation in this market and to monitor if there is some follow through.

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150202-copie-1.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index came in at 6, all other indicators are neutral at '3'

 

steumodel20150202.PNG

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was in danger because it was trading below its ascending trendline but it seems it found some support at critical level (red horizontal support). In this rebound, the market closed the session right below a strong resistance. So, we are now at a key turning point: even the market resumes its uptrend moving above the pink horizontal line or it rolls down and it breaks the red horizontal support. As long as it remains between those two lines, we are in wait and see situation.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150203.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes, we can notice that most of them found support on a strong horizontal support and printed what looks like a key reversal day. The DJ Utilities remains very strong, probably a yield hunting area.

 

US-Daily-ChartDJU_20150203.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150203.jpg

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150203.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150203.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index bounced back but it is still below its zero line, so the danger is still present.

 

stmodel20150202.PNG

 

The ST model uplifted its stop on the NDX:

 

stndx20140202.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4058, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

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2 février 2015 1 02 /02 /février /2015 08:17
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe Index continues its consolidation above the strong red horizontal support. As long as it remains above this level, the situation seems under control.

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150202.jpg

 

Looking at key European indexes, we continue notice major divergences between different countries.

 

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150202.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartESTOXX_20150202.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150202.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150202.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index continues to slide but it remains above its zero line. So, there is no damage at this stage.

 

steumodel20150201.PNG

 

United States:

The Sigma Whole Market Index was under heavy selling pressure at the end of the session on Friday. The market closed at its intraday low and the market is breaking its support area.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150202.jpg

 

Looking at key US indexes, we can notice some indexes are close to major supports, it is very important to keep those levels.

 

US-Daily-ChartDJT_20150202.jpg

US-Daily-ChartDJI_20150202.jpg

US-Daily-ChartNDX_20150202.jpg

US-Daily-ChartSP500_20150202.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index declined in negative territory, this is an important warning signal from the market.

 

stmodel20140130.PNG

 

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

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30 janvier 2015 5 30 /01 /janvier /2015 09:24
Europe:

The Sigma Whole Europe index continues its consolidation above the red horizontal. As long as the market remains above this level, there is no warning signal (from the chart).

 

EU-Daily-Chart_SWEU_20150130.jpg

 

Looking at key European indexes, we can notice a lot of divergence between the different markets. For sure recent forex action has some responsibilities in those divergence but this doesn't explain with the IBEX is so weak relative to other indexes. This is something to carefully monitor.

 

EU-Daily-ChartIBEX_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartFTSE_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartSMI_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartDAX_20150130.jpg

EU-Daily-ChartCAC_20150130.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index eased again but it remains above its zero line. So, there is no sign of trend reversal at this stage.

 

steumodel20150129.PNG

 

The ST lowered its stops on most European positions.

 

stestoxx20150129.PNG

stcac20150129.PNG

stibex20150129.PNG

 

United States

The Sigma Whole Market Index continues to struggle with its dotted ascending line. As long as it remains above this level, the situation remains 'ok' (no more than 'ok') but if it slides below this area, the situation could turn bearish.

 

US-Daily-Chart_SWM_20150130.jpg

 

The Sigma Trend Index(STI) is, again, testing its zero line. There is a clear fight between bulls and bears, let's see what happens in coming sessions.

 

stmodel20140129.PNG

Daily Trading Book: 

- SPX: stopped
- NDX: long at 4236.28 (2014's close) (stop @ 4035, 5pts below the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- CAC: short at 4659.35 (stop @ 4757, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3392.5 (stop @ 3465, 5pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- DAX: short at 10699.75 (stop @ 10938, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)
- IBEX: short at 10677.7 (stop @ 10823, 10pts above the ST model to take into account bid/ask spread)

 

Side bet: 

- CAC: short at 4490.35
- EuroStoxx50: short at 3276.5

 

 

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  • : Professionnel de la finance de marché depuis plus de 10ans, j'ai mis au point une série d'outils de trading me permettant de prendre et couper mes positions. Ici, j'écris un update quotidien sur la situation du CAC,DAX, Eurostoxx, SP500, Nasdaq100. Attention Les éléments repris dans ce blog représentent uniquement mon opinion personnelle et ne constituent en aucun cas une incitation au trading ou du conseil financier. Pour du conseil, consultez votre conseiller en placement
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