The market continues to climb at the top of the (red) uptrend. This is impressive to notice the perfect match between the Sigma Whole Market Index and this uptrend.

The Sigma Trend Index increased a little bit on Tuesday, allowing the Trend Level (TL) to move in overbought territory (at '5'). Other indicators are neutral at '3'.

We will get a fresh sell signal on the market if either the Swing or the Power Level decline to '1' with the Trend Level (TL) at '5' one day before this decline.

Our short term model remains in sell mode on the NDX.

Conclusion:

The market is (once again) overbought on a short term basis, we still consider the short side as the safest one on a risk/return basis (for the short term).

Short term position:

- short 1 NDX at 2734.9 (stop at 2781.5)

- short 1 CAC at 3783.56

Medium term positions:

- short 1.5 SPX at 1376.22

- short 1.5 CAC at 3103.87

The market tried to break the uptrend channel but it was unable to close above it.

Nevertheless, market was very strong even with Apple going down 12%, for me it was a major surprise.

All our indicators were unchanged on the day:

Our ST model remains in sell mode for the NDX, it is neutral on the SPX:

Conclusion:

We continue to believe the market needs a pullback, the momentum is low at this stage and the risk/return is in favor of short term short positions. 

Short term position:

- short 1 NDX at 2734.9 (stop at 2787.1)

- short 1 CAC at 3748.55 (stop loss at 3763)

Medium term positions:

- short 1.5 SPX at 1376.22

- short 1.5 CAC at 3103.87

Market was able, once again, to move higher. Nevertheless, we are now at the top of the red uptrend channel, and we would be surprised to get a clear breakout of this uptrend at this time: there is probably not enough momentum to do it now.

The Sigma Trend Index is roughly unchanged, other indicators are unchanged:

It is interesting to notice there is a major negative divergence between the STI and the Whole Market Index. This kind of divergence can't last forever.

Our short term model hit a stop loss on the SPX and remains in sell mode on the NDX:

Conclusion:

The chart looks more and more toppish, our short term model hit a stop loss on the SPX.

We keep our short position on both the CAC40 and the NDX

Short term position:

- short 1 NDX at 2734.9 (stop at 2799.98)

- short 1 CAC at 3748.55 (stop loss at 3763)

Medium term positions:

- short 1.5 SPX at 1376.22

- short 1.5 CAC at 3103.87

The market resumed its uptrend on Thursday, there is no sign of reversal at this stage:

The Sigma Trend Index (STI) slightly increased on Thursday, the Trend Level is at '4', other indicators remained neutral at '3':

Our short term model remains in sell mode:

Conclusion:

The market remains well oriented, but our model didn't reverse its sell position.

Short term position:

- short 1 NDX at 2734.9 (stop at 2801.28)

- short 1 SPX at 1462.67 (stop at 1492.27)

- long 1 CAC at 3722.52 (stop loss at 3720)

Medium term positions:

- short 1.5 SPX at 1376.22

- short 1.5 CAC at 3103.87

The Sigma Whole Market index remains above key support and looking at the chart, the big pictures looks short term bullish: we succesfully tested the horizontal support on Tuesday.

The Sigma Trend Index declined 5STI), but there is no negative impulse at this time: both the Power Level(PL) and the Swing indicators are neutral at '3'. We will have to monitor what happen if/when we test the STI's zero line.

Our short term model remains in sell mode:

Conclusion:

We will keep our short term short positions on USA (according to our short term model) but we will reduce our risk by closing our short term short on the CAC40.

Short term position:

- short 1 CAC at 3703.01

- short 1 NDX at 2734.9 (stop at 2801.28)

- short 1 SPX at 1462.67 (stop at 1492.27)

Medium term positions:

- short 1.5 SPX at 1376.22

- short 1.5 CAC at 3103.87